Publications
Evidence with a purpose.
Reports, policy briefs, press releases, books, and public commentary in one searchable archive.
Two-Year Report Card on the Prabowo–Gibran Administration
Two years is enough time for a government to demonstrate its performance. The honeymoon is over, and the promises Prabowo-Gibran once shouted from the campaign stage must now face the prices of staple goods, job opportunities, and the people’s wallets. This study is, in essence, a reflection of the public’s reckoning: what has been delivered, what was merely a promise, who has benefited most, and what impact it has had on society. These questions should, in essence, be raised in parliament. Na
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Sulawesi Has Exceeded Its Environmental Carrying Capacity as Extractive Industries Continue to Expand
Jakarta, 15 September 2026 — A new study by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) finds that Sulawesi has exceeded its environmental carrying and assimilative capacity. Based on a multidimensional assessment of air, water, land, social conditions, and policy controls, the island recorded an aggregate score of 4.5 out of 5, placing it in the “beyond limits” category. The report, Beyond Limits: The Failure of Environmental Carrying and Assimilative Capacity (D3TLH) to Control the Expans
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Over-the-Top Industry Governance in Indonesia
The Over-the-Top (OTT) industry, widely referred to as digital platforms in Indonesia, has become the backbone of the national digital economy, yet its fiscal contribution still falls far short of the economic value it generates. This study finds that with digital transaction value reaching approximately Rp1,350 trillion, digital tax revenue amounted to only Rp32.32 trillion, producing a digital tax coefficient of 0.27, a figure that reflects a systemic failure to capture digital economic value
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Are the People Being “Poisoned” by the Government? Tens of Thousands Affected by Suspected MBG-Related Food Poisoning, Yet the Crisis Is Treated as Trivial
Key Findings from CELIOS Memo #MBG Series 6 The 43,838 victims are not isolated incidents—they reflect a systemic failure. In the first three days of September alone, more than 1,908 people were affected in incidents linked to at least six different SPPG kitchens. MBG-related food poisoning has caused up to IDR 40.38 billion in socioeconomic losses, including medical expenses, productivity losses, and out-of-pocket costs. Nearly IDR 12 billion of these costs must be borne directly by the victims’ families.
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The Hidden Cost of Fire: Economic and Health Impacts of Forest and Land Fires in Indonesia 2026
CELIOS has released its latest research on the economic and health costs of forest and land fires (Karhutla) in Indonesia throughout January–August 2026. ➖ The total economic and health costs of forest and land fires in Indonesia during January–August 2026 are estimated at Rp39.29–123.1 trillion. The upper-end estimate of Rp123.1 trillion is equivalent to 49.1% of Central Kalimantan’s projected regional GDP in 2026. This estimate does not yet account for a scenario in which forest and land fire
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Indonesia’s Education System Battered by MBG
CELIOS’ Latest Study on MBG — 18 August 2026 MBG is still planned to continue in 2027, with an allocation of Rp240 trillion, equivalent to 29.3% of the national education budget. The government is failing to respond to the warning signs, learn from past failures, and fulfill its responsibility. Since Sudaryono was appointed, at least 1,557 people have reportedly been affected by suspected food poisoning linked to MBG. Yet instead of addressing the root causes and ensuring accountability, thes
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Memo on Village Cooperatives Series
Memo Kopdes Series #2 – CELIOS Kopdes MP in Turmoil (Again): From “Divine Inspiration” to Public Policy, from (Claiming to Be) a Cooperative to Competing with MSMEs Key Findings: Kopdes MP Lacks Policy Urgency Indonesia already has 139,203 cooperatives, yet the government has chosen to establish 83,259 new Village Cooperatives (Kopdes MP) instead of strengthening existing ones. Fiscal Risks Shifted to the State Budget The program's financing could reach IDR 240 trillion (up to IDR 3 billio
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From Ambition to Execution: Enabling Condition for Indonesia's First 17 GW Renewable Energy Deployment Phase
Indonesia's ambition to develop 100 GW of solar power marks a major milestone in the country's energy transition. However, translating this vision into reality requires more than ambitious targets. It demands a regulatory environment that can unlock investment, strengthen institutions, and accelerate project implementation. In this report, CELIOS examines why the first 17 GW deployment phase will be the defining test of Indonesia's renewable energy transition. The study identifies key regulator
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CELIOS Expert Opinion on the Judicial Review of the Teachers and Lecturers Law
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, Executive Director of CELIOS, has submitted a written expert opinion in his capacity as an economist for the judicial review of Law No. 14 of 2005 on Teachers and Lecturers before the Constitutional Court (Case No. 272/PUU-XXIII/2025). The expert opinion provides an economic perspective on the issues raised in the petition, contributing evidence-based analysis to support the Constitutional Court's review of the challenged provisions. Expert Opinion by Bhima Yudhistira – Constitutional Court, Teachers and Lecturers Law
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Policy Note: Multiple Shocks to Local Food Prices: Rupiah Depreciation and Non-Subsidized Fuel Price Increases
Indonesia is facing multiple simultaneous shocks—including the depreciation of the rupiah, rising global oil prices, adjustments to non-subsidized fuel prices, and the expansion of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program through SPPG—which together are likely to intensify pressure on food inflation. The depreciation of the rupiah is associated with higher food prices, particularly for import-sensitive commodities such as garlic, beef, and soybeans. The relationship typically begins to emerge ar
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Academic Paper on the Development of Venture Capital Financing and Tax Incentives in Indonesia
Indonesia’s venture capital industry holds significant potential to drive innovation, digital economic growth, and job creation. As an alternative source of financing, venture capital plays a critical role for startups and MSMEs that often struggle to access bank financing due to collateral requirements. This role is particularly important given that MSMEs contribute more than 60% of Indonesia’s GDP and account for approximately 97% of total employment, yet only around 30% have access to formal
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Free Nutritious Meals Program (MBG), Rupiah Exchange Rate, and Food Price Dynamics: Is the Expansion of SPPG Associated with Local Price Pressures?
A recent study by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) examines the relationship between the expansion of Nutrition Fulfillment Service Units (SPPG), fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, and food price dynamics across Indonesian districts and municipalities. Key findings include: Every additional 10 SPPG units is associated with an average increase of approximately 0.08% in overall food prices at the district/city level. Every additional 10 SPPG units is associated with a 0.12
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